Blast from the Past

The countdown to redundancy for everyone left in my office now stands at 8 working days. Accordingly, desks are being cleared out and many things unearthed. I have, for instance, found a copy of the FT from April 26th 2010 with an article about 'The Demolition Job that Awaits the Next Government'. With hindsight, it is rather striking.



Apologies for the poor quality cameraphone photo. The main point of the editorial on the left is that £37 billion of savings will need to be found from the public sector in order for the deficit to be halved by 2014. It is noted below the pie chart that all three political parties have failed to identify anything like that level of cuts in their announcements to date. Incredibly, of the three it was the Conservative party that had at that time announced the smallest level of cuts. £7 billion a year, to be precise.

The FT's modest proposals for cuts were as follows:

• Axe two aircraft carriers, which has not occurred.
  
  
• Reduce prison numbers by 25%, which has has not occurred, although Ian Duncan-Smith did entertain thoughts in this direction. Then came the wrath of the Daily Mail, and the riots. Thus the prison population has reached a record high.
  
  
• 5% cut in public sector pay for a year, which has not occurred, as the FT high-handed assumed that central government could just do this whenever they wanted. Which wouldn't be very localist, frankly. Public sector pay has been frozen, though, and with inflation running at 4.5%, that amounts to a cut in real terms. Moreover, there are now 240,000 fewer jobs in the public sector than there were last year.
  
  
• Means test child benefit, which is in progress.
  
  
• Scrap winter fuel payments and free TV licenses. Wow, the FT really cares about the elderly. This hasn't happened and there are no plans to do it. This government is far keener on withdrawing support from the young.
  
  
• Halve spending on NHS dentistry. Here is a rich irony for you, as this is presumably predictated on NHS dentistry being inefficient. It is one of the areas of the NHS run on more competitive, private sector lines. The government is now planning to bring that same ethos to the entire NHS in the health and welfare reform bill. Will the result be cost savings, chaos, worse health outcomes, or none of the above? Who knows - certainly not the government.
  
  
• Stop primary and secondary school building for three years. There is more irony to be found here. Building Schools for the Future was scrapped, and Local Authority budgets cut so that any new schools would need to be developer funded. However, the Free Schools policy will mean more schools coming into being. Is money being saved overall? The Department for Education took a smallish budget cut over the spending review period, so presumably that's the idea.
  
  
• Halve spending on Teaching Assistant salaries. Again, the FT is getting a bit high-handed if it thinks central government can just reach down into schools and fire half of their TAs. That said, many such jobs are probably looking less secure as schools look to absorb funding cuts.
  
  
• Cut funding to Scotland, Wales, and Northern Island by 10%. The government went for 7% overall.
  
  
• Halve spending on road maintenance and upgrades. This takes in two sets of cuts; to the Department for Transport (which is responsible for trunk roads) and to upper-tier local councils (which are responsible for local roads). The former took a 12.6% cut, the latter about 26% cut. A number of planned major motorway upgrades have been ditched and many local authorities have cut their pothole budgets. Whether this amounts to halving spending is hard to tell.
  
  
• Delay Crossrail for at least three years. This has not happened; Boris managed to save Crossrail from the axe.
  
  
• Withdraw concessionary fares for pensioners. The FT does seem to have something against the elderly. This has not happened and is unlikely to.

Abolishing the Child Trust Fund and Education Maintenance Allowance were also mentioned in the article - both of which are happening.

That amounted to £37.4 billion cuts over four years. In the Comprehensive Spending Review the government announced £83 billion cuts over four years, more than twice as many. Quoth the FT on April 26th 2010:

Spending cuts on the scale outlined in the Financial Times' analysis appear too politically risky to contemplate

Excuse me while I laugh bitterly. The FT proposed instead to raise income tax and VAT. The coalition have done the latter, but also cut or frozen the budgets of all government departments. Significantly, they have laid particularly hard into the welfare state, which the FT treated as sacrosanct.

What a change in just over a year. I suspect that the 'political risk' the FT mention was simply steamrollered by shock and awe tactics. The public sector must be cut immediately or the country will run out of money and citizens will have to start eating one another! (Only a slight exaggeration of the Spending Review rhetoric.) I think the FT underestimated people's apathy and lack of awareness of what the public sector does. Few protest when told that a government department's funding is being cut by 20%; it just seems like a number. When that means a fall in income or the closure of a local service, complaints start. By then, it is probably too late.

Titans Will Clash

Hostilities have erupted between The Telegraph and the Department of Communities and Local Government. The former has launched a campaign against planning reforms in general and the draft National Planning Policy Framework in particular, called Hands Off Our Land. Or as I like to call it Not In Our Back Yard. CLG seem to feel the need to respond in terse, aggressive fashion to their every article here, here, here, here, and here. I pity the poor civil servant required to write those.

Frankly, this is a war I hope they both lose. Each side is as prone as the other to making sweeping, alarmist statements without such fripperies as evidence, for example:

75,000 HOMES TO BE BUILT ON ENGLAND'S GREEN BELT!

PLANNING DELAYS COST THE ECONOMY £3 BILLION A YEAR!

At the heart of this acrimonious dispute lies the paradox of modern Tory conservatism: free markets versus nostalgic protectionism. At the moment it appears that the government favours the former and local government the latter. This of course reduces a complex and nuanced issue to black and white, but such is the current tone of the debate.

Pickles and co have been insisting that localism will cause all areas to embrace development, against experience on their doorsteps. The Telegraph has spotted the disjunct here and pounced. Notice the obvious subtext here, that people want localism in order to prevent development.

The draft National Planning Policy Framework has caused this storm. Apparently the fact that the Localism Bill isn't actually that localist wasn't widely noted, but the presumption in favour of sustainable development is pretty unequivocal. George Monbiot is outraged about it; he doesn't often agree with the Torygraph.

I continue to think that both sides are partially right but mostly wrong. The planning system is too complicated and does need simplification. However the Localism Bill makes it more complicated, and ignores the fact that most people will only get involved with it if there is a specific proposal nearby that they want to prevent. And that is perfectly rational! In these austere times, few want to spend ages debating community projects unless there is some hope of them happening. People should be encouraged to get involved in planning, but not obliged to.

Without doubt, the draft Planning Policy Framework doesn't give a clear enough definition of sustainable development and puts far too much emphasis on economic growth. The presumption in favour of sustainable development is hugely risky. Outside greenbelt land, it will become extremely difficult for local authorities to refuse planning permission. If they do, appeals are likely to be granted. However, I don't think most people are staunchly pro- or anti-development; it is the job of the planning system to determine which development is right within limited available space. Importantly, the draft framework should make it much easier to get planning permission for wind turbines, something that fills The Telegraph with dread and me with delight. Meanwhile Yougov polling suggests that, if anything, the electorate in general are confused and apathetic about the whole thing (pdf).

I noted in July that the draft planning policy framework had not got very much media coverage. That has definitely changed. Neither Team Pickles (and their allies the British Property Federation et al) nor Team Telegraph (and their allies the National trust et al) seem open to compromise. With engaging hyperbole, the planning reforms have recently been described as political suicide and even a recipe for civil war. The fight can only get dirtier and, hopefully, more entertaining. For once local government isn't directly in the firing line, so excuse us whilst we sit on the sidelines and have a little schadenfreude party.